If you've noticed an increase in the talk amongst Republicans about the Migrant Caravan as we get closer and closer to the election, you aren't alone.  This is isn't a random occurrence that just happens to fall near election day, Trump is taking a card straight out of Karl Rove's playbook and coming up with a reason for Republicans to take the polls.  He is currently airing this TV ad, directly linking the caravan to the upcoming election.

Trump is hoping by inflating this issue into something much bigger than it actually is, Trump can lure Republicans to the polls, saving them from their low expectations.  And before you call bias on my "inflating the issue" comment, there was a similar caravan earlier in Trump's presidency, which Trump called out, but did nothing in terms of sending troops and keeping in the cycle for over a week.

Will it work, is the question.  In the past last-minute tactics, events have helped candidates soar to victory, namely James Comey reopening Hillary's email investigation a week before the election, an event many agree tipped the election to Trump.  This event is a bit less one-sided.  Liberal-leaning voters are generally upset with Trump's strong use of force against the migrants, which they view as just trying to survive.  It could very well be that the voter turnout that Trump's migrant story causes among conservatives is countered by the liberals it turns out too.

We're uncertain it will shift the election in either direction.  Although this controversy doesn't alter our forecast much, it adds a great deal of uncertainty to it.  It is another factor that could completely change the outcome of the election.

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